I wonder if its not both supply and demand and speculation all rolled into one. In warm months, people have to consume more fluids than during the winter as well as kids being out of school and pestering the parents for things to drink. Lots of fluids options out there but overall Al can numbers used probably goes up. Suplly of empty cans go up (and the end buyers know this), price offered for scrap goes down. Throw in the big speculators who make big $$ by only a few pennies difference overall and its a lovely mix.
What I've seen in 30+ years of selling non-CRV Alum cans is that the price has gone up over that time (I used to get .25-.35 a pound in the 1980s and now its around .50 a pound although its just dropped a dime over the past couple of months). But also the value of US money has gone done so how much overall difference?? At least here, the Al can market doesn't yo-yo as much as some of the other scrap metals. I don't have space to horde so usually take in 20-25 lbs. of uncrushed cans (makes no difference here) so generally get an average over time.
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