You hit the whole issue square in the head, Fuel prices are at the real heart of scrap prices vrs. new mining extraction. The Leeb analysis described in Game Over is a comprehensive review of what we have left in both oil and metals. I would say this is a must read if you are in the scrap biz. The price of oil and scrap will more or less "stairstep" over time. From all the research I have done copper,platnium, and palladium are the sure fire "strong" metals, scrap steel also looks good since there is not much easy to get to iron ore for new mining. If I was wealthy I would physically acquire and horde copper (there are wealthy investors that have done (are doing) this, 40K lbs in conex boxes), 2 billion people are electrifying their lives over the next 10 years. Unlike gold "real" industrial metals are hard to create bubbles around due to the price being tied to legitimate demand and growth. Ever study 3rd world economies, they work hard to develop and export value to other markets, sound familiar? We already have record levels of metal theft as the poor try to remain solvent, this will increase as prices increase. We will part ourselves out to meet the demands of world markets. The only thing I can see to disrupt this trend would be a total oil embargo from the middle east..that would stop Eastern development. The Chinese have publicly stated they would be comfortable with 200/bbl oil since they could control the market at that point, that shows a very confident long term out look for our scrap metal.