Trump Presidency/Scrap Prices

**Scrappah** · 11-15-2016, 07:08 AM

Originally Posted by Patriot76

First to answer the question, I believe scrap prices will increase but not to the artificial level they were a couple of years ago. Part of this will be caused by supply and demand and some based on rebuilding the infrastructure. Conflict in the Middle East may also have an impact. I think Trump has some lofty goals, but the reality of politics will slow down his timeline. Future foreign policy may cripple both China and India and put the brakes on global demand for scrap. Therefore I believe the increase in prices will be natural and not the result of leadership in the Oval Office. The demand will come from within the U.S. Just an opinion.

I'm wondering what it would look like if we got into a conflict with the Chinese.

Maybe a proxy war like Korea where China was backing the North Korean communists and we were backing the Democratic South Koreans ? Vietnam was another one of our proxy wars with the Chinese.

I would really look into what's been going on in the South China Sea. It's a complicated situation that hasn't getting very much news coverage here in the states.
Trump Expected to Take Tough but Brief Action in South China Sea

Can you imagine ? We get into some kind of war with the Chinese. That cuts off all of the Chinese manufactured goods being imported into the U.S. That cuts off all of our exports to China.

That would be a real game changer for our scrap market.

**Patriot76** · 11-15-2016, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by Scrappah

I'm wondering what it would look like if we got into a conflict with the Chinese.

Maybe a proxy war like Korea where China was backing the North Korean communists and we were backing the Democratic South Koreans ? Vietnam was another one of our proxy wars with the Chinese.

I would really look into what's been going on in the South China Sea. It's a complicated situation that hasn't getting very much news coverage here in the states.
Trump Expected to Take Tough but Brief Action in South China Sea

Can you imagine ? We get into some kind of war with the Chinese. That cuts off all of the Chinese manufactured goods being imported into the U.S. That cuts off all of our exports to China.

That would be a real game changer for our scrap market.

I cannot disagree with any of your points. I am in favor of confronting the Chinese and a trade war would be right up Trump's comfort level. To get to the trade war I think flexing our muscles will force the Chinese to back off. Although they have the advantage in numbers, the US has the military strength and equipment to force a retreat. Then starts the trade war. The Chinese have much more to loose if trade is suspended. The best thing about Trump is that he is unpredictable and that makes other world leaders hesitate. It will be an interesting four years, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china...utions-3306277

World Military Strength Comparison

I hope this is not considered an attempt to hijack a thread, I think this confrontation will have a huge impact on scrap prices.