It's hard to say. I looked into the startup costs for pellet production a few years ago when home heating oil was at it's peak. There's a lot to it. You've got to have a ready source of sawdust ( not wood chips ) like what you would get from a sawmill.
If you had to process softwood from logs down to sawdust it would require more energy to make them than they gave off in heat energy.The other issue you run into is that you need a chemical binder like corn starch or potato starch to hold the sawdust fibers in a pellet shape. An operation of any size would likely be having to buy tons of starch every year.
IMO ... timing is everything. A few years ago oil was at it's peak. People were upset over the cost and looking for alternative heat sources. The mills looked in their back yard and thought to themselves that this is the perfect time to make something useful out of their waste product. They already had 20 mil invested in wood processing equipment and an established distribution network. It was really nothing to spend a few mil more on machinery and launch a new product line.
It would be really hard to build even a small pellet operation from the ground up. You might not be able to compete with the economy of scale and the timing for a new venture is off.
There are a few ways of capitalizing on waste softwood that i've found to work pretty well over the years.
The First: It doesn't take a big investment in equipment to get into caretaking & property maintenance. All you need is a good chainsaw & a pickup truck. Property owners have dead trees & blow downs they want cleared off their property. The tree branches aren't hard to get rid of. The logs are a pain to get rid of but if you heat with wood the customer will literally pay you 40.00 - 120.00 $/hr to cut the logs to stove length and haul them off site to your house.
Once they're back at your shop you run them through a log splitter and either use the wood for your own purposes -or- sell softwood firewood for 110.00 to 175.00 $ per cord. If you sell it, you have to pay income tax which kinda sucks but if you use that money to buy brand new equipment to work with every year or two it's tax free income.
Second: They say that a penny saved is a penny earned. A cord of softwood has about the same heat energy as 90 gallons of home heating oil. When i ran a cost comparison a few years ago my costs for softwood were 75 cents per MBH vs. fuel oil at 21.50 USD per MBH. Even in the coldest winter we're only using five gallons of fuel oil per week. Some of the neighbors are spending 300.00 - 500.00 USD per month to heat with oil.
The Third Way: Network with the wood cutters in the area. The ones that are doing it full time have far more logs than they could ever need or want. Just let them know that it would be okay to drop them at your place if they are working in the area. It makes it so much easier for them and you get free wood. I've already processed 9 cord of what came in this spring. It's likely they will drop another two wheeler loads before they're done working in the neighborhood.
It's A LOT OF WORK but it's a comfort to know that you've got your heat taken care of next winter.
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