My first post here, but I have made my living from scrap for most of the last 45 years.
Aluminum scrap went in the tank in 2008, has never recovered, and I see no reason for aluminum scrap being as high as it is today, which is down considerably from a year ago. Around here cast scrap is in the mid-30s per pound. I expect low to mid-20s before the end of the year. Just saying from 45 years of experience in the aluminum scrap market.
At one time I was cleaning and selling 100 tons of cast aluminum scrap per year. Now I am only doing about 3 tons. Concurrently I was selling 30 tons of #2 scrap per month. Now only turning about 1 ton per month.
At one time I was turning 3 tons of appliances per day, but got out of that in 1986 when EPA changed the rules. Made a lot of money with appliances since I was selling them for $55 per ton back in the 70s and 80s which was after I high-graded them. Sold about 10 tons of appliance high-grade every year at the same time.
Since 2008 scrap has been a sideline since around here it has been impossible to compete against the big guys. That is changing. The low prices are forcing the big guys around here to drop prices they are paying. I expect within a year I would be able to compete against them again, although I seriously doubt that I want to do that. Basically, I don't look for scrap - I just get scrap in the process of buying what I need, and, of course, got to do something with the scrap I get.
I moved my shop 3 years ago, so instead of the big guys being 10-20 miles from me, they are now 180 miles. BUT, I have dealt with them so long, I get paid the same price for my iron here as they were paying me before I moved AND they haul it for me! Last month I got paid $135 per ton for 3 tons THEY picked up and hauled 180 miles. Local scrap yards are paying $20 per ton for the same scrap and I have to haul it to them. Guess what I do. I have had drop boxes for my iron for the last 35 years.
I have had a guy haul my aluminum scrap now for the last 25 years. Before I moved he would charge me 5 cents per pound to haul it 10 miles and most of the time there was around 2 tons in every load. May sound expensive to do it that way, but saved me hours every load giving me time to birddog more scrap. Now I pile aluminum up for a year (about 3 tons), he brings me a load of scrap that I want that he has accumulated during the last year, I get paid the difference, and he hauls the aluminum 180 miles back to the big boys. I figure that I am getting double what I would get if I just sold it locally.
Anyhow, everything I see points to a stock market dump in the next 6 weeks on the order of 2008. I am talking about a 40% stock market crash by the last Friday of October. Can we say 1800 for the S&P? Or 16000 for the DOW? Definitely sounds ridiculous today. Time will tell.
In 2008, #2 iron here dropped from $300 per ton in April/May to $17 per ton on Election Day in November and stayed below $25 for months. We could easily see something similar this year. In 2009, I made a killing in scrap because no one could pay what I could pay. By 2010, prices started recovering and competition came back. Things were so bad that some wrecking yards in the area were PAYING the shredder take their scrap cars and had to haul them to the shredder to boot. I remember one yard that crushed 3 semiloads of cars and got a check for $180 TOTAL. He had a 1-acre yard and could not afford to store them until the price rose.
Anyhow, this is my SHORT first post.
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