I do not believe we've been substantially affected by price shifting. Steel has been down a long time now but the reason is both seasonal and demand related. Copper drop was an expectation for me, so I bailed on it early. At the same time aluminum has been great in no small part to the demand for the new f150 (and mustang...and expedition...if we are going there) even the new titan is supposed to have an aluminum hood now. That use and viability of the product will keep aluminum high for a long time to come. We may eventually see China pushing scrap back to the US to drive our prices down...but I think if it happened it would be of desperation and largely ignored. China doesnt have large bauxite reserves so far as I know...nor copper so any dump we see coming from that direction is probably our scrap to begin with.
Things I do expect: Gas will come back up this year, if not by October...sooner. Already Saudi Arabia has been squirming. They claimed they can pump and deliver oil at $17 a barrel and threatened us with it. The real truth to oil is there are grades of crude and not all crude is worth as much as others. Saudi oil is sour, it has lots of elements that require additional processing to remove. Gulf oil is called light sweet crude, this oil produces more gasoline than sour.
A pumpjack in Arkansas costs about $4 barrel to operate. The land transportation is the major issue and cost.
Gulf oil is by far our cheapest oil, the cost to bring it to a refinery is around $30 a barrel at present.
Keep in mind...our $30 light sweet crude is a better product from the start than $17 Saudi sour. China and India might not care but we stand to have a better economy on our $30 light sweet than they ever would on sour. These are facts, oil men will confirm as much, BP is pulling out of Saudi Arabia if you didnt know, they've committed to some russian exploration and much more alaskan, gulf, and venesuala(sp?) I only know any of this because I used to be a hot shotter so I spoke to so many people with a multitude of knowledge it was amazing.
Also...mind blower for everyone: It was agreed upon 50 years ago our oil reserves were a result of the decay of plant matter over millions of years. Now...after having probed venus and jupiter we know it is a geological process and the decay has very little to do with the formation of petroleum. Pumpjacks in oklahoma that ran dry in the 50s were turned on again a few years ago when prices went way up, and guess what...oil came out.
As far as how oil and china affect our demand...I think the pleasantry of this will come to light soon enough. Low prices on the other end give our manufacturing segments a chance to grow and expand...something we need more than ever. The more we make the more we use the more we scrap...and on and on and on. I personally hope we reduce our chinese made consumer electronics and increase american made.
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