Can't Get Any Worse.... - Page 2

When I last brought items to the scrap yard a couple months back and told the lady cashier that it might be awhile before she sees me again, she looked at me with a puzzled look and asked why.

I told her that it wasn't worth my time and energy with the prices where they are.

I have been busy with more then scrap and interesting curios and collectibles as well as my art works that pay well when I feel the art muse. I do art stuff when I feel like it and it's different tmes of year depending on the art theme I want to create.

I had a old hay bale rack that I fixed and painted up the metal frame and put a set of aluminum rims with nice rubber on. I saw that as a sort of art project.

I also do very nice electrified steampunk and have sold my art for hundreds and also interesting trades.



I learned many years ago that it wasn't WI$E to put all you eggs or energy and thought into one basket case.

the world will go on and the WI$E and their friends will survive.

I'm doing fine when I look around at others.

I have had to cut back on my entertainment spending, but that just makes me get more creative and motivated like a drowning puppy. Yes I realize that my last statement was very crude and disturbing, but that IS a part of reality even if we don't like it as I LOVE the smell of puppies breath and puppies in general.

When the going gets tough the tough get going...

I now feel it is better to scrap some items as dirty vs. breaking them down and storing items. Prices are low but look at dirty prices for me they have not fallen as much as clean items...

So what's the solution? Give up?

Not me! I use everything available to me to address a problem. This forum and its members is one avenue I seek out. Many smart and wise people on this forum,many posted on this thread. I try to find new opportunities whenever things change for the bad.
Keeps my mind sharp. Being negative never gets me anywhere ,it only makes me focus on the problem, not the solution.
I see it as natural culling process. I don't see a tenth of the scrappers on the road from a year ago. So iam getting more product! And thanks to the advice, encouragement, and freely given knowledge of SMF members iam learning how to get better than scrap price on items I usually just scrapped.And having a great time doing it.

My point......
There are no problems, only solutions. John Lennon

What is likely to happen?
Our material costs will be nearly nothing, or will they stay up there where they peaked?
Im meaning material costs as finished metals ready for production of material goods. ie Ali for engines, Sheet steel for car bodys.

One way to look at it that "Well thats what you have paid before, so you can afford it and when prices drop we will just 'tax' it more and keep this money"
A good example is, in NZ when oil was $90+ a barrel, we paid NZ$2 a litre, now its less than $50 a barrel, we still pay $2 plus a litre, the Goverment just ups the tax on it to keep the price the same.
And people still pay it. I expected people to be buying 1000cc cars and ripping up their lawns to plant food gardens 5 yers ago.
But people are still driving , and buying V8's and planting flowers rather than food.
At the moment its getting more expensive as the NZ$ drops against the US$, but oils never been this cheap for decades. ie last time it was $50 a barrel, we were paying NZ$0,95cents a litre.

A lot of people have borrowed lots of money to make production plants, metal mines, houses and buildings, at the top end of the price range.
But can now someone come in and borrow less money to get brand new materials and make the same buildings/mines/production plants for far less?
Would this spur new borrowing to buy cheaper, to get better returns, but at the same time bankrupting existing and unfinished businesses?

Our minimum wage is NZ$14.50 a hr. Now the NZ$ is worth US$0,65cents. But 6 months ago it was worth US$0,90 cents.

I just don't get it, we get more money but at the end of the week we can only save the same as we could 10-15 yrs ago. But what we are saving up to buy is now worth 3 times what it was back then.
17yrs ago, my NZ$9500 house, is worth NZ$70,000 now, down from NZ$90,000 5 years ago.

Hell, if you Americans invested US $4000 into buying a house here in NZ 15 years ago, it would have paid for itself back in 2005 and you would get NZ$150 a week in rent $ after overheads and be able to sell it for US$100,000 last year.....

Just got a text message from Upstate Shredding to expect more price drops this month. They suggested bringing in material now.

Or Scrappah the Big Dawgs buy enough of the medium-small yards to keep their supply chain up. The little yards that don't produce a certain volume just get dropped. Scrappers in the affect area either have to travel greater distances, stock pile a lot more, or just give up if the logistics don't work. If you've ever driven by a sugar beet field after harvest, a person wonders why so many beets are still laying around in the field? It must be to collect that last 15-20% of what the field produced doesn't pay for the cost of trying to pick them up. We'll see what happens...

Originally Posted by sledge

It does not look good when NewZealand isn't even in the picture...

It can't get any worse, sure it can and more than likely it will! It can get much worse on a personal level if you let it, if you make no adjustments, do nothing but the same old thing and you will find the bottom. The price of scrap metal is a problem for curbco scrappers, the dumpster divers, small family shops, building trade contractors, the members of SMF, small/large scrap yards, refiners and "the big dogs" too. Everyone has a spot in the food chain, the customer is needed by all, at all levels.

There is so much contributing to the low scrap metal prices, all factoring into "the perfect storm" for a entire industry. The Stock Market,The Commodities Markets, local, national and global economies impact scrap metal prices. Industry demands vary, with construction, electronics, automotive and mining contributing to scrap metal price changes. Seasonal events, sever weather, natural disasters can cause prices to rise and fall. Politics at all levels, policy in small countries (Greece), large country (China) political/economic influencing (China), Large scrap metal supplier (United States) all affecting one another and collectively determining some scrap metal price swings.

Personally I think prices are determined by four factors for most of us: 1. Location of individual scrapper, a rural scraper has a greater transportation cost compared to a city scrapper. 2. Number of local yards, size of scrap yards, yard intake volumes, material processing efficiency vary by material and with individual yards. Feeder yards tend to have lower prices than processing yards. 3. Transportation infrastructure makes a big difference, Ports, railroads, truck terminals, major interstate corridors and warehouse/storage capacity all add or lower price choices. 4. Regional advantages, local/state/federal laws have a big influence on prices. Having a local foundry, a steel mill or a refiner that buys scrap metal from the yard you sell to helps.

There is no one reason for scrap metal prices being the lowest in years. We have little say, some choice and all will work harder for less money in our wallets (for now anyway). The one thing we can do, learn to do it better than most. Become a good customer, it pays a little better to be needed.

On Walmart, Sam was perhaps the best salesman and marketer in history. He was a conservative, caring, giving man with a vision, give consumers the best prices for products they needed and wanted. He drove the same pickup for years, also used a private plane to expand his "Super Store" concept. He built warehouse and transportation structure in each new market, then built the stores to dominate that market region. He was one of the first to use satellites, linking the stores, warehouse's, trucks and the buyers. He knew his customers, the American consumer, we wanted choices, availability, we wanted bargains, on sale and a "blue light special" sale. We also wanted "JOBS", so he started a "Made in America" campaign. He hired senior citizens to be store "door greeters", he hired lots of women and he became Americas "largest" employer!

I grew up in rural Arkansas in the 70's, I saw how Walmart changed the little town nearest us. I became a fan of Sam, liked going to town to buy what I wanted as a teenager. Music, clothes, spark plugs for my car or a new hunting rifle, before Walmart came to town, we had to drive 80 to 90 miles to get what we needed. Walmart was a good thing then, they became a bad thing. Walmart has cost American's good jobs, driving prices so low, now a Walmart supplier, can't make anything in America and sell it at a profit in Walmart store. We can't buy anything if we don't have jobs, Sam would have never let China flood America with Cheap "made in China" $****! Sam didn't have minimum wage employee's, he had Associates, he cared about. Sam was a American who drove a pickup and built a company to make things better for people.

Sam Walton's 10 Commandments
1. Commit to your business.
2. Share your profits with your associates and treat them like your partners.
3. Energize your colleagues.
4. Communicate everything you possibly can to your partners.
5. Appreciate everything your associates do for the business.
6. Celebrate your success.
7. Listen to everyone in your company.
8. Exceed your customers' expectations.
9. Control your expenses better than your competition.
10. Blaze your own path.

I personally believe the prices of scrap, high or low, have very little direct effect on or to or about the US economy. Or much to do with the US economy as a whole, in general. If you step out of the personal "scrap bubble" you've created for yourself, things in the US are as normal a ever. Consumer good prices creep up with inflation, the NYSE is trending upward, etc.

I do admit to some ignorance though. I have not researched historical prices, like consumer index compared to the value of scrap during any specific time period.

The world economy, now that's a different story.

I'm searching for the crystal ball. Please let me know if I am wrong, if i'm close or way off.

Originally Posted by nutpie

I personally believe the prices of scrap, high or low, have very little direct effect on or to or about the US economy. Or much to do with the US economy as a whole, in general. If you step out of the personal "scrap bubble" you've created for yourself, things in the US are as normal a ever. Consumer good prices creep up with inflation, the NYSE is trending upward, etc.

I do admit to some ignorance though. I have not researched historical prices, like consumer index compared to the value of scrap during any specific time period.

The world economy, now that's a different story.

I'm searching for the crystal ball. Please let me know if I am wrong, if i'm close or way off.

If you live in a city that has curb side recycling I am sure that the lower prices for "scrap" will result in higher fees to "dispose" of this waste, or reduction of services (fewer items accepted or less pick up days).

Originally Posted by DakotaRog

Or Scrappah the Big Dawgs buy enough of the medium-small yards to keep their supply chain up. The little yards that don't produce a certain volume just get dropped. Scrappers in the affect area either have to travel greater distances, stock pile a lot more, or just give up if the logistics don't work. If you've ever driven by a sugar beet field after harvest, a person wonders why so many beets are still laying around in the field? It must be to collect that last 15-20% of what the field produced doesn't pay for the cost of trying to pick them up. We'll see what happens...

It's a definite thing .... if prices are down some things just aren't worth doing anymore.

I would be cautious of a thing called confirmation bias. We all tend to have our own unique way of looking at the world around us. One of the best examples that i heard of was the law of fives. The (hypothetical) principle stated that the universe was patterned after the number five. When somebody became aware of the principle they automatically started seeing patterns of five everywhere because that's what they expected to see.

The trick for anybody / anywhere is to take off the rose colored glasses and look at any situation in an unbiased way.

ie: Some would say that we find ourselves in a difficult situation and that the reality isn't all that great right now. Others would say this is simply negative outlook because they see things differently.

Ultimately ... the guy/gal with the clearest perception of the world around them will make better choices & do better in life.

Those who have drifted off into their own little reality bubble will become more and more dysfunctional as their internal reality becomes more & more out of synch with the hard realities of the world around them.

Sometimes entire groups of people go completely off the rails and come up with crazy public policy. Same thing happens to the big dawgs when they fall prey to the arrogance of power.

Weird stuff and has nothing to do with the thread ... but it kinda does.