Steel Prices and Where I Think it Going

My concern with the direction of steel prices has lead me to some recent research that suggests that steel will make a big rebound soon. I was all but reassured until my buyer at the local scrap yard said to expect it to get worse before it gets better. Me made mention of scrap yards closing down completely. When steel is worth $40 a ton, what will we do? We've bought our scrap at X and cannot even get back to X. Shutting down till prices go back up?

Im sure there is quite a bit of truth in his prediction of 1982 like prices. But another part of me thinks that this is a risk adverse senior citizen that makes a living buying low and selling high. I do think the prices will recover and hit 200/ton again in August. Its going to be the smart and stable scrappers that make it beyond these next few months.

In 2008 we seen a sharp decline in steel prices followed by a rally that topped never before seen prices. I believe the economy was to blame.
AS the economy has grown back the prices have followed down as a result.

The unfortunate news is I think were about to see another recession. Although not as big as the last but an overall drop in the dollar before picking back up once again.
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Hence, a soon (8/2013) sharp rise (i expect to see 300/ton for a few days) and then leveling off through out the winter around 225/ton

Dont take my word for it. If steel never comes back up, ????

fuel prices are definitely cutting into the business right now, people are less willing to haul when prices are down and fuel prices are up

Originally Posted by Tcgs

My concern with the direction of steel prices has lead me to some recent research that suggests that steel will make a big rebound soon. I was all but reassured until my buyer at the local scrap yard said to expect it to get worse before it gets better. Me made mention of scrap yards closing down completely. When steel is worth $40 a ton, what will we do? We've bought our scrap at X and cannot even get back to X. Shutting down till prices go back up?

Im sure there is quite a bit of truth in his prediction of 1982 like prices. But another part of me thinks that this is a risk adverse senior citizen that makes a living buying low and selling high. I do think the prices will recover and hit 200/ton again in August. Its going to be the smart and stable scrappers that make it beyond these next few months.

In 2008 we seen a sharp decline in steel prices followed by a rally that topped never before seen prices. I believe the economy was to blame.
AS the economy has grown back the prices have followed down as a result.

The unfortunate news is I think were about to see another recession. Although not as big as the last but an overall drop in the dollar before picking back up once again.
Contributors
(consumer confidence, obama care, IRS Scandal, natural disasters)

Hence, a soon (8/2013) sharp rise (i expect to see 300/ton for a few days) and then leveling off through out the winter around 225/ton

Dont take my word for it. If steel never comes back up, ????

I will be holding my steel.

it"ll get wrose before it gets better whenm it hit"s $100 a ton we"ll see alot of scrappers start selling out

Originally Posted by Libertytow

it"ll get wrose before it gets better whenm it hit"s $100 a ton we"ll see alot of scrappers start selling out

Almost a necessary evil. From a business standpoint I'd want the weak to fall out. Then again I don't want to wish hard times on other scrappers.
I imagin a floor. Somewhere around 80-100 a ton. More yards not buying.
Third quarter rally!

im still seeing quite a few scrappers driving around when im making my weekly curb run, they wont really get shut down till steel is $100 and gas is $5, but it is definitely getting closer to that point in certain areas

I have about 10 tons stockpiled right now, i am going to hold out for $200 before i haul again. It is still $180 ton for shred here in kansas city.

Just took a small load of computer carcasses in today and they paid 210. n-ton
must not be affecting us here in the Midwest.

I'm surprised piston has yet to comment on this, being he has a bit more insight on this topic.