Looking into the future- Scrap metal prices

This is quoted from a very respected scrap yard here in Michigan-
"
LOOKING OUT OVER THE METAL MARKET HORIZON

It’s been a while since you’ve heard from me. I’m still here looking out for all of our great customers.

The scrap metal market is a tough road to hoe right now. Prices have inched up over the past few weeks, but that doesn't mean they will continue to do so into the future. In looking at facts, figures, and expert opinion, and staring out over the metal market horizon, we've decided to sell some of our inventory that we've been stockpiling for some months now. We are at the place where we believe this might be the top of the market, at least for a few more months. All industry indicators are pointing toward steady prices or even dropping prices again in the coming weeks - so this is the "new normal" from our vantage point.

Because we care about you, our customers, I want you to know where things are at and where we see them going with scrap metal prices. And right now in my opinion this is the best time to move some of the scrap metal you may have been hanging on to. We want you to know that if you've been holding onto material for several months, now is probably the best time to move it (at least some of it).

I can’t always see over the horizon to see what it coming, because if I could I wouldn’t have started building up our inventory in August because the market still went lower. We started saving material back in the fall and the market went down more than we anticipated when we thought it had to be at the bottom. I was wrong. I can't always see perfectly where prices are heading, but I’m offering up my best guess to you so that you can take advantage of the prices that are available right now. Hope this helps you by having a better look at the future as we all stare out over the horizon. ~ Steve Fair"

Thanks for your insights. Right or wrong(personally I agree with you) at these prices the cost of holding for a long time can eat up any possible additional profits. Mike

At least things are looking up for e waste. Gold is on a tear again. IMO, expect higher prices to soon follow.

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Originally Posted by HipoGear

At least things are looking up for e waste. Gold is on a tear again. IMO, expect higher prices to soon follow.

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I disagree with that statement E scrap took way too long to fall, so expect it to take way too long to climb

people that lost money in the drop need to make it back on the climb!

V/r HT1

thanks for the info but I planned 15yrs ahead for these things by starting out scrapping when I was a kid when prices were half what they are now and learned to work hard and when I started this as a business almost 5yrs ago I planned it as a business. so for me the future is awesome with prices staying as they are infact there is a little inside me that hopes they don't go up because people would not be giving me all the stuff they normally would sell themselves and I want that money.
I have been able to stockpile some nice small easy to store stuff that I can hold as long as im alive lol to wait for another boom if it ever comes lol

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Originally Posted by travistemple202020

thanks for the info but I planned 15yrs ahead for these things by starting out scrapping when I was a kid when prices were half what they are now and learned to work hard and when I started this as a business almost 5yrs ago I planned it as a business. so for me the future is awesome with prices staying as they are infact there is a little inside me that hopes they don't go up because people would not be giving me all the stuff they normally would sell themselves and I want that money.
I have been able to stockpile some nice small easy to store stuff that I can hold as long as im alive lol to wait for another boom if it ever comes lol

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if you had sold at the top of the last boom you would have all that money to reinvest into your "business" you would multiple your money multiple times over your life rather then just once. and of course you would be less effected by inflation devaluing your currency of choice *Shrug* o:)

I think that for us guys who know a bit, its going to be a bit harder with lower return for a while.
But a steady incomming stream of scrap, and fluculating incomes.

Because we know a bit more than the average guy, and the average guys not doing any scrap at the moment.
The average guy is going to loose knowledge and end up just passing it on to us guys for whatever they can get for it, or free "just to get rid of it for free" as they now know its going to cost them $ to clear it out.

Us guys are going to upgrade, selling for reuse at better $ instead of scrapping it if we can.
We are going to get into Freon recycling and possibly getting second hand dealer licenses so our scrapyard buyers do not have to hold onto OUR scrap for a month for Police inspections.

That means quicker turnover for and quicker $ and guaranteed certified freon evacuations and no law enforcement interaction problems for them.

We will also get customers who will give us all their scrap and let us sort it
(there's higher quality grading now and lack of separation knowledge by them and wrong grading will cost them all their potential $ in one go)
and we pay them afterwards.

There's also no fallback on them as we are licensed, we can grade cat convertors and pay them a better base rate on average. This is from places like panel repairs and car garages etc.

We can sell the electric lock on the crumpled car door and make our $ there, and pay them some $ for the crumpled door, that they know now will cost them money at the moment to get rid of normally.
We do the hard work and they get more free floorspace.

Scrapmetalforum has really been a 'game changer' for us scrappers.

We used to get $ for scrap iron metal, now its worth nothing, we still get $ for it (parts) and then we still get $ for the scrap Iron..... But only WE can get those scrap Iron $$.

I simply can not agree with eesakiwi more.

This forum has made all the difference for me. I'm not physically able to move large amounts of scrap and am restricted to lifting less than 20lbs. With what I have learned on the forum I can make a modest side income that keeps me engaged in life.

The amount of shred I produce these days its a nuisance and I have my son sell it and keep the money just to get it out of my yard.

I want to again thank those present and past members who have been so very generous with sharing their knowledge. 73, Mke

Keep in mind it's just an opinion not a fact that this is the top end of the market for the next 3-6 months. He may be saying that because he has no material and has orders to fill in the next two weeks. It might go down it might go sideways it might go up. It's anyone's guess at the moment. I think we all can agree up or down its not gonna be much maybe 10-20 bucks in either direction. 20 bucks is almost 20 percent up or down for the avg street customer with the current prices. The cold weather and low to non existent flows into yards are going to be next months real factors. Hard to get obsolete material when it's this cold out.

one big thing i see left out of the equation is the elephant in the room INFLATION. Whenlight iron was $25T n the 60s candy bar was .05c and fuel was .18 general labor was $65 per week.

Inflation has been a problem and a major one since 1971 and the gold standard was lifted allowing banksters to trade worthless pieces of paper to be traded like commodities.

This problem has increased exponentially in the last few years causing various countries to suffer
monetary, near collapses,

To simplify this effect on us all, a candy bar at ,05 would be ok at $1 (20x) if scrap or your labor were the same increase but it is not. Your scrap is only increased by 4x and your labor by only 8x at best.

My special needs foods were $50 a few months ago and raised to $75 a couple of months ago this month they were $90. All these type hidden costs have effects on the economies of whole countries and their abilities to grow their infrastructures and therefore their need for materials.

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Originally Posted by HT1

if you had sold at the top of the last boom you would have all that money to reinvest into your "business" you would multiple your money multiple times over your life rather then just once. and of course you would be less effected by inflation devaluing your currency of choice *Shrug* o:)

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oh no im talking about here in the last year and half, people have passed up so many goodies that I can stockpile all my nice cpus and vintage boards. I have always reinvested in my business but the last boom was nothing for money, it was a lot of fun but also everyone and there mom was out there driving down profits unlike now that its a ghost town and prices are so cheap, let alone all the regular scrap that's just sitting I have made more money this past year that any of the years during the boom almost 6 times as much.
as for inflation that here in my area here in iowa devaluing my currency its has not at least if you mean gold or the power of cash. when you factor in overhead I pay $70-210oz for gold cause I don't count my time but if I pay someone its still only $380-400oz which is almost half of what it was during the height of gold prices. as for cash, inflation here is down a lot, prices for goods are down a lot from just 2yrs ago even less from say 4-5yrs but gas is also half what it was just dropped to $1.54 here but oil also gained on fri so look or it to go up 10-15cents on tues. also businesses are now paying $1.50-2 more per hour than they were a few years ago even Walmart starts at $9hr now.
this is an overflowing college town with very little space to rent so that has gone up over the years but with all the new construction to house the students being completed with in the next yr or so it will level out and drop as people move to newer places and renters add more ammenties or lower rent to keep places like mine full. even my landlord wanted to start 2yr leases for us longer term renters so when rent drops we still are locked in.
so the power of the dollar here goes a lot future now that it did a few yrs ago and gold for me is worth more as I am buying at least in the sense of e scrap cheaper than ever

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Originally Posted by travistemple202020

I pay $70-210oz for gold cause I don't count my time but if I pay someone its still only $380-400oz which is almost half of what it was during the height of gold prices.

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You lost me here Travis. Are you refining boards for the PMs?

in general the amount paid for boards cpus memory ect. for the mixes I send in that are closely equal to a oz of gold extracted from the material, in the sense that the total cost I pay for an ounce.