Aluminum

Aluminum stays for the most part the same price - say compared to copper that is doing well now & even if it went down to $2 as historically i see copper had at times sold for .70 and less for long period of times i would assume that if copper dropped well probably we will find more of it for free. BUT see Aluminum even if you look at a 10 year chart strives to stay at the current price it seems to at times Spike low to rebound fast.
I guess it must be we use lots of Aluminum - wheels - motors - planes
whats your take on Aluminum ?

For several years, the Chinese have been manipulating the aluminum market. Worldwide, basically there is a surplus of aluminum stock which is expected to continue for a year or so.

The Chinese can influance the copper market as well. We have seen this nose dive because they are not buying and their economy is showing signs of tanking. They and India are the largest buyers of copper and when they hold off on the market everyone suffers. I however, came across a new buyer recently who does not deal with the Chinese. They are a smelter and use my copper chops to prime their furnace. They are buying 80-100k pounds a month from me now. Its nice to have a more stable buyer.

Aluminium prices will not change that much over time as its the third most abundant element in the earths crust and the most abundant metal. It's price will be dictated by the cost to dig up and process the ore. Supply keeps a lid on it's price and costs to manufacture it puts in a bottom. Expect it to change with oil prices.

Aluminum recently went down. AL Wheels dropped .12 and sheet AL dropped another .10. Nothing to major but generally speaking its a consitant market.

We have a Aluminium smelter in NZ & source Aluminia from Aussie.
Over the last 15 yrs theres been lots of brand new smelters made, extensions of old smelters & a tighten up of the materials shipping part of the deal.
During the late 90's & early 2000's there was a Aluminium war in Russia & people were getting kidnapped & assassinations & such.
Real live Mafia stuff.

Now theres a bit of a oversupply of Ali, as well as a very efficient recycling business.

The oversupply from Russia (cutting each others throats, sic) & increased production in Canada & NZ.
More small smelters made where they get Cryolite from (Iceland or something, easy to dam a fiord near a cryolite mine & build a hydroelectric station & then a Ali smelter there so they can ship materials in both directions).

They key to Ali is the cost of power to the smelters, that changes the price lots.
During the Enron thing Ali went up in $ as electricity got more expensive.

Smelters also use Pitch, a thick dark tar & carbon in their anodes & cathodes, that $ goes up when oil does too.
Dedicated pitch mines drop the price again & offset some petrol production as well.

Very very interesting market the Ali one is, easy to do the math on.

On the good side, anything made of Ali, boats & truck tankers & lawnmowers etc etc has a noninflation aspect to their manufacture & supply.
Expect there to be more stuff made from Ali, & more recycling of it.
Once Ali is made, it can be recycled 12 times using the same amount of electricity that they used to make it in the first place.
Glass & Ali take the same amount of electricity to make per kg. Glass only gets used once.
Ali 12 times.

Dosn't look too good for the Ali business, though it could go anywhere..
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...er-up-for-sale

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...uSwPkIXRpVqx8_
13 potlines @ 50 pots per line @ 1 ton Ali per pot per day = 650+ tons Ali per day.

Anyone got a few billion $ I could borrow? It uses 15% of NZ's power generation.
Ultra high grade Ali too, mostly capacitors & such.