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Any predictions as to how much corona is going to affect scrap metal prices?
(It's a serious question. Within just the first 2 weeks of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, the copper market dropped $0.25 per pound, a blow to all scrappers feeds. Corona is shaking many markets and the metal markets are no exception.)
I think it will be a big, hungry bear for 3-5 weeks... then hopefully a wild bull.... need to edit my comments... I meant 3-5 MONTHS not weeks.... "Meh".Quote:
Originally Posted by MetalPhil
I can wait. I've been holding on to my better metals for a while now anyhow. The steel is the only thing I let go of. But the wild bull may change my mind :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Ewasted
Magic 8 Ball says.....
To my mind:
There are six forces that drive PM's & base metals.
1: Supply
2: Demand
3: Market manipulation : ie: The Hunt Bros & more recently the wild prices surrounding Rhodium.
4: Currency inflation / deflation
5: Energy ( Petroleum products )
6: A Black Swan Event. That's something nobody could have ever anticipated. ( 9/11 came straight out of nowhere and turned the world upside down.)
This Covid-19 event is still in it's early stages here in the states. IMO ... bare bones minimum 6 months before we're over the hump and life begins to normalize again.
" Post Event " we're likely looking at a negative 5% in global economic growth. They don't call it economic depression anymore. Instead they call it a recession. I suppose that's a fair enough descriptor. The economy recedes.
Available supply seems adequate. Disruptions in the supply chain could cause short term price hikes.
Demand is likely to be off. That would depress metals prices.
Market manipulation ? < shrugs> Who knows ?
Energy .... energy prices are currently dropping. That would exert downward pressures on metals prices because they should cost less to produce and transport.
Currency inflation almost certain. It will take more of the devalued U.S. dollars to buy that ounce -or- pound of metal. That will make scrap prices appear to rise.
A Black Swan ? Covid -19 is in itself a Black Swan event. The situation changes by the day. It could evolve into a virus with a 20% mortality rate or completely disappear. There's really no way of knowing how this will all turn out.
Lol .... here i am trying to make it sound like i know what i'm talking about. I really have no idea.
My instinct is telling me that metals prices are low right now. Things don't look so good on the back side of this event. Money is gonna be tight and consumer demand will be off ... way off.
We might see a rise in prices in year or so ?
If so ... it would only be because of a decrease in the value of the dollar ?