Tariff's

If the proposed Tariff's go into effect , I'd figure scrap price could go up
or if the scrap market is so dependent on foreign countries that we could get part of the absorbing cut with lower price per pound
On the other hand if regulations allow, America could utilize more of our in home scrap product to produce more product from our shores to American industry .
Scrappers have long understood aspects of the steel industry ahead of most American's
in relation to changes of comities pricing.
All along I have heard chatter about low cost steel aluminum from China and think well Duh America is selling tons of scrap metals to them
America has been selling it self off , lock stock and barrel - Evident from the loads of Short steel at yards shipped out of America

Nucor Corporation operates 23 scrap based steel production mills. U.S. Steel has around 16 production mills, but I'm not sure how many are scrap based. There are around eight other companies that are US based as well. Didn't bother to look up the copper, aluminum, nor lead smelters you mentioned.

Originally Posted by billygoat

Nucor Corporation operates 23 scrap based steel production mills. U.S. Steel has around 16 production mills, but I'm not sure how many are scrap based. There are around eight other companies that are US based as well. Didn't bother to look up the copper, aluminum, nor lead smelters you mentioned.

The EPA lists 11 total smelters in the US, 5 of which are noted as "operational", and 6 are noted as "idle".

Edit: you are looking at production facilities, and not smelters. "Roller mills", rebar stock plants, and the like are not the same as steel smelters.
Edit edit: US Steel has 2 operational smelters, 8 'non-operational', and 2 'idle' .

It would seem a progressive movement spanning generations has disassembled the metal industry .
It seems to me these tariffs will not even the playing field as we can't produce enough metals to cover a completive pricing
America with re-elections a complete change occurs views to the Left , views to the Right
If RLS0812
is correct , I can see that there will not be agreement's for
re building industries that will last 25 years

I think one needs to look at the bigger picture. In my opinion this move was more about national security than about job creation. We have allowed our ability to produce steel (tanks ship, jeeps etc) and aluminum (aircraft) to fall to dangerous levels We would never be able to reproduce what we did in WW11 and I don't believe we have to with the advancements in todays military. However if we were to have a full scale war it would likely be with North Korea and the reality is that China could very well side with them. In that event we certainly couldn't rely on China to provide us with either steel or aluminum...could we?

China has been silently developing a massive war machine and it is making those in power rather nervous. Just this week we sent the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier to Vietnam as a show of force and we have also agreed to talks with North Korea. I'm definitely not a conspiracy nut, but these are just some observations I have recently noticed.

I'd say recyclers know China is a huge buyer of what we sell to the yards .
This could go down in history as similar with Japan's massive steel acquisitions previous to Pearl Harbor
If you ask me , we may have sold our soul's for scrap money. It's kinda FISHY my fellows , Load a Truck with what you can find
& the reward is better then many jobs . I am but one little scrapper & for years finding CU SS AL Lead Steel Zinc & every thing in-between & paid with Fiat for hard REAL goods . Oh Crap this is history in the making .

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The Korean DNA is Chinese wile there are variation's of Asian's The land mass known as Korea is connected to China
all of Asia would have tremendous anger from a Nuk war with harm to water and air
no different as America would react if Canada was radioactive . War with Asia is a NO WIN . The human count is enough of a reality for me

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we have no choice but to have talks for the good of humanity

My reading and living of history makes me think tariffs are a very bad thing. In the past they have caused world wide down turn in trade which causes a downturn in living standards.

These down turns can be/may have been some of the causes for wars to break out. Certainly the restraint of trade of Japan was a stated reason for the attack on Hawaii and Japan joining the Axis countries.

It has been stated that China in particular has been dumping steel into the U. S. market. Dumping by the Chinese government means subsidizing their steel industry through direct payments to the producers of steel in China.

So is it possible this is an opening negotiating move by President Trump???? Perhaps but I certainly don't read the future.

In the mean time if this tariff goes into effect we as consumers will will pay for more goods both for the higher costs of steel and the reduction in available goods.

Take a picture folks this could be history in the making. 73, Mike

If one were to only consider the impact tariffs will have on scrap metal products I would say none. Please remember tariffs can be directed to specific countries, specific items, or a combination of the two. A three legged stool could represent our interactions with other countries. The three legs include economics, politics, and security. You cannot operate in one realm without affecting the other two and we will not treat all countries the same.

I have to respectfully disagree about the US ability to process scrap. A desire for more industrial jobs, the ability to gear up production in less than a year after Pearl Harbor, rebuilding the US infra-structure is a goal, the Middle East and Asia are still going to want our metal for expansion, the border wall, ect. all indicate our scrap is valuable. I made a statement in another thread that I expected mills and refineries to pop up in the middle of the country with transportation hubs directed to all borders and coasts.

The current administration is focused on making America Great Again. In my opinion this would encourage isolationism which was popular with Woodrow Wilson and one factor to both World Wars. If other countries raise their tariffs on us we will be heading towards isolation as well. Whether this is good or bad is up to the individual. My prediction: The US is capable of self sufficiency in all three areas and this is a great bargaining chip. Other countries will negotiate to avoid the US from pursuing isolationism. As MikeD pointed out, this could be history in the making.

I am not one to believe the far left - ski is falling - Russian collision - Trump is deranged - & More More More ............
I have to trust Trump sees some thing that has made him determined to help America be more Interdependent .
Do we need another pearl harbor to test our ability's . Possibly a Tariff will let us all see our situation .
I don't have enough facts to figure what happens to scrap price if a Tariff is put in affect but I do feel scraps need will remain
If a profit can be made with scrap there will be industry to fill need .
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What I can say after scrapping close to 9 years What I used to find as scrap from consumer goods/ industrial goods was higher content copper
short steel - Brass - aluminum - Items to be found now to scrap as a comparison the copper
short steel - Brass - aluminum - has been reduced and replaced with lower grade steel , plastic , less copper more circuits
For sure the scrap I used to find is not coming back the same way . As a scrapper who dismantles they are not fooling me .

After writing the previous post I have been researching the proposed tariffs. Some figures jumped out: 960,000 steel jobs in the US were lost in 2017. In addition, the US only uses 75% of the steel we can manufacture.

Mexico and Canada provide 20% of our imported steel and it was just announced that they may be spared from the tariff. It is interesting that the NAFTA deal will be renegotiated and the administration said that Mexico will pay for the wall. Add South Korea and Brazil and the four countries represent 50% of our steel imports. I expect all four will get a reprieve from the tariff as well.

If there is a trade war our biggest exports are machinery, aircraft and space equipment, mineral fuels, and electronics. These are also our biggest imports. The export that is vulnerable is agriculture. NAFTA, Russia and China's response to the tariffs becomes the variable in this equation. Add North Korea's dependence on China with NAFTA and the economical positioning has taken a political and security twist.

To summarize my thoughts - Scrap metal prices will continue to be based on capitalism and not steel imports or tariffs. This is assumed because of the increase in steel imports in 2017 to beat the tariff. The tariffs are more political than economical. If a trade war emerges we will be more self sufficient as we reel in our exports and increase production. This will lean towards isolationism.

Now for the conspiracy theorist's: What does this have to do with Uranium One?

Trump is also doing what he does best....negotiating in a very non diplomatic way that gets results.

He announces that he's considering tariffs and everyone gets excited, but look what's happened since:

Canada and Mexico come to the table to renegotiate NAFTA.

China puts pressure on North Korea to come to the table.

US Steel and Century Aluminum both announce plans to reopen idle plants in the US.

His raw shock and scare tactics are unconventional but you have to admit they are getting us better and faster results that we've ever seen before.

Originally Posted by RLS0812

It's interesting that EU countries can charge ungodly high "duties" on imported goods, yet the US is expected to allow any country to dump their cheap # for free.

My brother who is no expert told me that our beef is subject to a 300% tariff in Italy. If you import(and why would you?) an American car to Vietnam there is a 100% tariff. I expect most of our exports are subject to tariffs.

I am still not convinced that tariffs on steel and Al are in the best interest of the US citizens because I expect goods to cost a little more. These tariffs may be a stated reason why prices are raised to the extent they may be.

Utilizing the tariffs as bargaining devices in negotiations for trade deals with China and others may prove a real value. This may take years to to see any real change. I really do hope that the US steel manufactures will update or build new facilities. The advent of the mini mills like NuCor steel has built has been great for the steel manufacturing.

We shall see, but we may not pay attention. (by "we" I mean the entire population of the US) Mike